HISTORICAL FUEL PRICE GUIDE

Gasoline, Diesel and Crude Oil

U.S. annual baseline: 1990-2019 | 2020 excluded | prices stated in August 2026 dollars

At $50 per barrel WTI: historical gasoline $2.79, historical diesel $3.03. A revenue-neutral equal price is $2.85 per gallon.

The simple historical rule

Gasoline: price ($/gal) = $1.565 + (0.02441 x WTI price in $/barrel). Each $1/barrel change corresponds to about 2.44 cents per gallon.

Diesel: price ($/gal) = $1.654 + (0.02747 x WTI price in $/barrel). Each $1/barrel change corresponds to about 2.75 cents per gallon.

Equal-price formula: price ($/gal) = $1.587 + (0.02519 x WTI price in $/barrel). This assumes 360 million gallons/day of gasoline and 123 million gallons/day of highway diesel, with total revenue unchanged.

WTI crude
$/barrel		 Historical
gas		 Historical
diesel		 Same price
for both		 Gas
change		 Diesel
change
$40 $2.54 $2.75 $2.60 +$0.05 -$0.16
$50 $2.79 $3.03 $2.85 +$0.06 -$0.18
$60 $3.03 $3.30 $3.10 +$0.07 -$0.20
$70 $3.27 $3.58 $3.35 +$0.08 -$0.23
$80 $3.52 $3.85 $3.60 +$0.08 -$0.25
$90 $3.76 $4.13 $3.85 +$0.09 -$0.27
$100 $4.01 $4.40 $4.11 +$0.10 -$0.29

Table basis: post-2005 WTI regression (2005-2019), inflation-adjusted to August 2026. Positive gas and negative diesel changes make the two prices equal while preserving combined revenue.

Equalizing the current national prices

Using the EIA national prices dated August 31, 2026, the revenue-neutral common price is $4.46 per gallon. Gasoline would rise about $0.39; diesel would fall about $1.14.

Important limitation: this is revenue-neutral arithmetic, not proof that a refinery or retailer could operate profitably at those exact prices. Gasoline and diesel have different taxes, refining margins, seasonal specifications, logistics and wholesale market values.

Official sources

EIA WTI annual price history

EIA gasoline and diesel historical/real prices

EIA current gasoline and diesel update

© 2026 Brent Roberson. All rights reserved.